Bow Tie Kreative Writing System
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Rules / argument

ARG-008 Hard constraint layer: sentence

Distinguish correlation from causation

IF evidence is correlational AND the claim is causal, THEN add causal evidence, state a mechanism with tests, or change the claim to association ELSE retain.

Why the rule exists

Co-movement alone does not establish cause.

Condition

The rule fires when this evaluates true. Paths marked below must be present in the fact base; the engine reports the rest rather than guessing them.

  • ALL
    • evidence.design eq "correlational"
    • claim.type eq "causal"

Facts this rule reads

PathSource
evidence.design You supply it
claim.type You supply it

Then

  1. repair — target claim

Else

  1. retain — target current_text, No triggering condition is present.

Test cases

TST-013 · [object Object]

Before
People who carry umbrellas are near rain; umbrellas cause rain.
After
Umbrella use is associated with rain because people carry umbrellas when rain is likely.
Reason
The causal claim becomes an association with a plausible direction.

LAKA

Smallest sufficient intervention
Yes
Primary axes

Sources

  • Technical Communication — Mike Markel; Stuart A. Selber
    Audience, design, ethics, research, and technical genres.
  • Advertising Substantiation Policy Statement — U.S. Federal Trade Commission link
    Objective claims require a reasonable evidentiary basis before dissemination.
The raw rule record

Verbatim from 14-argument-nonfiction-rules.json. Also available at /v1/rules/ARG-008.

{
  "id": "ARG-008",
  "name": "Distinguish correlation from causation",
  "domain": "argument",
  "layer": "sentence",
  "strength": "hard_constraint",
  "human_logic": "IF evidence is correlational AND the claim is causal, THEN add causal evidence, state a mechanism with tests, or change the claim to association ELSE retain.",
  "when": {
    "all": [
      {
        "path": "evidence.design",
        "operator": "eq",
        "value": "correlational"
      },
      {
        "path": "claim.type",
        "operator": "eq",
        "value": "causal"
      }
    ]
  },
  "then": [
    {
      "action": "repair",
      "target": "claim",
      "options": [
        "add_causal_evidence",
        "state_testable_mechanism",
        "change_to_association"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "else": [
    {
      "action": "retain",
      "target": "current_text",
      "reason": "No triggering condition is present."
    }
  ],
  "unless": [],
  "because": "Co-movement alone does not establish cause.",
  "diagnostics": [],
  "examples": {},
  "source_ids": [
    "BK-026",
    "WEB-013"
  ],
  "laka": {
    "smallest_sufficient_intervention": true,
    "primary_axes": [
      "scope",
      "depth",
      "magnitude",
      "reversibility"
    ]
  }
}

Other argument rules

  1. ARG-001 Define the rhetorical situation IF author, audience, purpose, text, or setting is unknown, THEN define the missing element before drafting strategy ELSE proceed. Hard constraint
  2. ARG-002 One controlling thesis IF a document makes multiple unrelated controlling claims, THEN narrow, subordinate, or split them ELSE retain. Context default
  3. ARG-003 Classify claim before selecting evidence IF a claim is present, THEN classify it as factual, causal, evaluative, definitional, predictive, or policy before choosing support ELSE do not infer support requirements. Hard constraint
  4. ARG-004 Evidence matches claim type IF evidence type does not support the claim type, THEN replace, supplement, narrow, or remove the claim ELSE retain. Hard constraint
  5. ARG-005 Make the warrant available IF evidence does not obviously entail the claim for the intended audience, THEN state the connecting warrant ELSE retain. Context default
  6. ARG-006 Qualify to the evidence boundary IF claim scope exceeds evidence population, conditions, time, or uncertainty, THEN narrow or qualify the claim ELSE retain. Hard constraint
  7. ARG-007 Address strongest relevant counterargument IF a reasonable reader has a strong relevant objection, THEN represent it fairly and respond with evidence or concession ELSE omit peripheral objections. Context default
  8. ARG-009 Name uncertainty and limitations IF evidence has material uncertainty, missing data, selection limits, or alternative explanations, THEN disclose them near the conclusion ELSE retain. Hard constraint